Yes, Oscar nominations are less than twelve hours away! It's time to preserve my idiocy and ignorant for all time by making some predictions using my amazing prognosticative (sic) powers.
I'm only going to do Best Pictures - the five I think are most likely to get noms and five that have a good shot. I know a lot of you care about Best Sound Editing or Best Gaffer, but I don't.
The Nominees Are...
Slumdog Millionaire - The almost universal critical praise, its slowly-gathering box office success and great word of mouth, and its Golden Globe success make this pretty much a lock. Let's hope it's a win too.
Frost/Nixon - The acclaim the movie's getting, particularly for its lead performances, makes it all but a lock. I would be extremely surprised if this didn't get a nod.
Milk - Hollywood loves a well-made cookie-cutter biopic, and its progressive subject matter will make the Academy (and Sean Penn) feel warm and tingly inside by voting for it. Am I cynical? You betcha.
The Wrestler - Will Mickey Rourke's performance alone be enough to jettison it to contenton? We'll see, but I'm willing to give it that chance.
The Reader - The year's Dark Horse, not much chance but you can never be sure. Everyone loves a Holocaust film, right? (Wait, then where's Boy in the Striped Pajamas? Nevermind.)
Also Ran...
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - A few months ago this would have been an unquestioned lock, but mixed critical reviews and largely negative buzz from the people whose opinions matter in these things. Still, it's been a big hit and it has elements of the movie that the Academy likes to suck up whenever possible, so we'll see. Speaking of which, I need to see this film ASAP.
Revolutionary Road - DiCaprio and Winslett together isn't going to result in anything besides a Kate Winslett nomination.
Doubt - As much as I love this movie, I don't see anything beyond the three acting nods for Streep, Hoffman and Adams (and maybe Davis). I would love to be surprised though.
Gran Torino - Poor Clint. First the Changeling buzz fizzled out, now this movie's going to miss out except maybe a Best Actor nod. Wait a minute - Unforgiven, Mystic River, Million Dollar Baby? No "poor Clint", try "Move over Clint - give someone else a turn!"
The Dark Knight - Popularity and critical acclaim count for something, but I don't see this getting any nods beyond Best Supporting Actor for Ledger and a few technical awards.
Thanks for your time. Let's keep our fingers crossed that I get one of these selections right...
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